Hon Daniel Asekhame.
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential election, political strategists and ordinary Nigerians alike are already assessing which parties might triumph where, and by what margins. Among the most challenging targets for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) would be replicating or exceeding its presidential performance in Edo State — a state historically known for competitive, fluid political loyalties and strong turnouts for opposition parties.
To put the numbers in perspective: Edo State had about 2.5 million registered voters in 2023, but total accredited voters were far lower, around 600,000. In that election, the APC secured only a small fraction of the votes — far below the aspiration of 2.5 million votes from Edo State.
In the 2023 presidential election, Edo State voters gave the Labour Party (LP) dominant support, with the APC trailing far behind. According to detailed results:
APC received just 37,728 votes (about 14%). Labour Party led with about 194,426 votes (over 70%). PDP also outpolled the APC. This pattern reinforces that Edo is not a stronghold for the APC presidential ticket — it is competitive, and often leans away from the ruling party in general elections.
To achieve 2.5 million votes from a single state like Edo. APC would need every single registered voter (and then some) to vote exclusively for them — an impossibility given voter turnout trends Therefore Unrealistic
In 2023, total accredited voters were ~604,000, and valid votes cast were even lower.
Even if turnout rises significantly in 2027, crossing the one-million vote threshold from Edo alone would require turnout and partisan concentration far beyond historical precedent. Hitting 2.5 million votes — essentially asking for virtually every voter to turn out and choose APC — is therefore statistically and politically unrealistic.
The Federal Government’s Poor Performance Echoes Locally a central reason the APC struggles to attract broad support in Edo is widespread dissatisfaction with the federal government’s performance. Many Nigerians across regions — including in Edo — have expressed frustration over:
Economic hardship — inflation, currency instability, unemployment, and declining living standards.
Insecurity — continued banditry, kidnapping, and violence in parts of the country.
Perceived weak governance and corruption — public frustration at unmet expectations since the APC came to power.
These sentiments have been a cornerstone of political discourse and opposition messaging for years, eroding the APC’s appeal in states where voter choices historically swing based on performance evaluations of incumbents.
Edo’s Political Dynamics Aren’t APC-Friendly as voters have demonstrated willingness to support non-APC candidates — for example, backing the Labour Party in 2023 and previously supporting PDP presidential candidates.
Gubernatorial elections are also competitive: even when APC won the governorship in 2024, turnout and margins reflect a divided electorate, not a monolithic base.
Given this mix, only a significant shift in public sentiment or extraordinary political events could realistically move the needle substantially in the APC’s favor.
Nationally, APC has struggled with a perception deficit:
Many analysts and Nigerians say the APC-led government has failed to deliver on major campaign promises, particularly around economic revival and security.
Although views vary widely, this narrative has strengthened opposition parties’ appeals in many southern and swing states.
In Edo, where voters are politically engaged and responsive to performance narratives, bridging that gap — let alone turning it into overwhelming support — would be exceptionally difficult.
In sum, the idea that the APC could capture 2.5 million votes in Edo State in the 2027 presidential election is, with current data and trends, virtually impossible: A bridge too far.
Actual votes cast in 2023 were a fraction of that number.
APC historically performs weakly in Edo’s presidential contests.
Public dissatisfaction with the federal government hurts APC’s support base.
Even a surge in turnout cannot realistically produce such a concentrated vote share.
To achieve anything approaching a quarter-million votes, let alone millions, APC would need to transform its image dramatically, rebuild trust in governance outcomes, and resonate with voters on core social and economic issues — a tall order within the current political climate. Therefore an impossibility.
